Round-up: President Trump Approval Polling

The question “Do you approve of the way President Trump is performing his job?” is asked in a variety of forms across a variety of surveys. Here they are aggregated by sample type (population) which, for most surveys, is either the general population or registered voters. Surveys of “likely voters” are included here when available however the application of a model to filter respondents on likelihood complicates their interpretation.

Current Averages

Registered voters are more likely to approve of the President than the general population. Who are the un-registered voters?

Population
Sample
Yes
No
Net
General Population (11/11/19 - 12/4/19) 10,04141.2%54.0%-12.8%
Registered Voters (11/11/19 - 12/6/19) 7,05642.4%53.2%-10.8%
Likely Voters (12/3/19 - 12/5/19) 1,50051.0%48.0%3.0%

Net Approval: Rolling 365 Days

Registered voters do not trend uniformly in the same direction as the general population. Who are the un-registered adults?

General Population Surveys

There are fewer general population surveys than surveys of registered voters which accounts for a smaller sample size.

Pollster
Sample
Yes
No
Net
Morning Consult (12/3/19 - 12/4/19) 2,19640.0%54.0%-14.0%
Ipsos (12/2/19 - 12/3/19) 1,11739.0%55.0%-16.0%
SSRS (11/21/19 - 11/24/19) 1,00742.0%54.0%-12.0%
SurveyMonkey (11/20/19 - 11/22/19) 2,39744.0%52.0%-8.0%
American Research Group (11/17/19 - 11/20/19) 1,10037.0%60.0%-23.0%
Saint Leo University (11/13/19 - 11/18/19) 1,00043.4%55.0%-11.6%
Marist College (11/11/19 - 11/15/19) 1,22441.0%51.0%-10.0%

Registered Voter Surveys

Feels like registered voter should be the most predictive of outcomes.

Pollster
Sample
Yes
No
Net
YouGov (12/4/19 - 12/6/19) 76444.0%53.0%-9.0%
Ipsos (12/2/19 - 12/3/19) 95542.0%54.0%-12.0%
Quinnipiac University (11/21/19 - 11/25/19) 1,35540.0%54.0%-14.0%
SSRS (11/21/19 - 11/24/19) 91043.0%53.0%-10.0%
American Research Group (11/17/19 - 11/20/19) 99236.0%61.0%-25.0%
Emerson College (11/17/19 - 11/20/19) 1,09248.3%46.5%1.8%
Marist College (11/11/19 - 11/15/19) 98844.0%51.0%-7.0%

Likely Voter Surveys

Wise.one is generally skeptical of “likely voter” surveys given the probabilities of actual likelihood. It’s usually only Rasmussen, with another reason to be skeptical of their results. Open question: What makes a likely voter?

Pollster
Sample
Yes
No
Net
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (12/3/19 - 12/5/19) 1,50051.0%48.0%3.0%